Rationale statistics, problem, needs, concept

The Statistics

Most active volcanoes are situated in remote or difficult to access parts of the world, where facilities are rarely available to assess the likelihood of a volcanic eruption and provide advanced warning to the local population.
Every year, thousands of seismic events are recorded from volcanically active regions of the world, including Europe, Central African, North, Central, and South America, Asia, and Oceanic Archipelagos.
Many of these events are related to below ground magmatic activity at currently erupting, as well as dormant, volcanic systems.

Over a 1 million people In the European Union are directly threatened by hazards related to volcanic activity.
In the immediate surroundings of Naples, Italy, more than 800,000 people live under a high risk of eruptions from the Campi Flegrei - Mount Vesuvius volcanic complexes.
It is estimated that it would take a week to evacuate these people in the event of a major eruption, although currently less than a day’s warning is likely.
There is, therefore, an urgent need to improve the reliability of predicting volcanic eruptions in both accuracy and timeliness, especially in highly populated areas of the world.

There is currently an inadequate understanding of the dynamics of active magmatic systems associated with volcanic regions that can be used for the prediction of eruptions in the assessment of volcanic hazards.
This understanding requires detailed and reliable field measurements, sophisticated data analyses, and the development of a complete theory of seismic sources associated with magmatic transport.
However, the attainment of these objectives is hindered by gaps in the understanding of the coupling of magmatic dynamics and their associated seismic signals through heterogeneous media, which has impeded progress toward a synthesis of seismological observations into a coherent model of eruption mechanics.

Experimental evidence suggests that there exists a relationship between long-period or sustained seismic signals and underground volcanic magmatic activity.
The vast majority of permanent volcanic surveillance systems, however, are equipped with sparse networks of sensors capable of only recording short-period seismic signals. Where long-period seismic signals are collected, they are often not processed, owing to the inadequacy of the observation systems.

Civil protection agencies are in need of timely and accurate information on the risk of a volcanic event for volcanic disaster forecasting, planning, management, and response for risk reduction aimed at eliminating or reducing the severity of its consequences on society and the environment, through prevention, mitigation, and control measures
This will require uniform and standardised methods of collecting, processing, analysing, and classifying seismic data in volcanically active regions, to provide quick and reliable information on the potential of a volcanic eruption by:
- Defining the type and nature of volcanic seismicity that are precursors to an impending eruption.

Discerning and locating seismic events with traditional seismic recording networks when the deployment of special capacity seismic monitoring instruments is not an option.
Determining exact significance of these events in terms of eruption potential.
Establishing a quantitative relationship between the dynamic behaviour of magmatic and hydro-geothermal systems and the nature and occurrence of their related seismicity.

The establishment of a seismo-volcanic monitoring system linking volcanic sites to fully equipped and staffed volcanic observatories in real-time would provide the necessary forecasting and early warning of an impending eruption.

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